The OG Land Expert Weighs In: Predicting The Land Buyer’s Market Shift

This is episode 2193. Jill and I talk about how long it will continue to be a land buyer’s market. That is the question. How long will the stock market continue to go up? How long will it continue to go down?

You know what? I bet that there’s an app on my phone. There’s a crystal ball app. No, I’m not kidding. You know there’s an eight-ball app, right?

Yeah. It’s a little different.

You shake it, and it gives you the little thing. You know what? I’m going to put that on my phone.

There’s a lot of guessing that goes on in the stock market. There’s no real guessing here. I can tell you with a pretty high degree of certainty when this is going to change.

There's a lot of guessing that goes on in the stock market; there's no real guessing here. Share on X

My point is you don’t need to use your magic ball app, even though I’m going to get that. I’m going to ask, since you have a lot, anyone that I know or will ever know, you have the most experience and have done this more times in the land business, period. You are the OG.

What is that?

You know what? I had to look it up, too. I was reading a magazine. It’s going on and on about all these people as the OG, original gangster, but it’s not a bad thing. You, in the land space, are the OG. No one will dispute it.

I see. That makes sense.

That’s it. The reason I’m bringing that up is that I have you as my resource, and I’m going to ask you questions all about this because you have seen this before.

Finding Your Ideal Land Partner: Strategies For Scaling Your Real Estate Business

Let’s take a question.

Elijah wrote, “I’ve been in the land business for several years and experienced mild success.” Isn’t any success a good success?

Yes.

Hang on a moment. Let’s not downplay the success. “I’m looking for partners, so we can take the business to the next level. Where do I start? Is this even possible?” Jack, you’re the best at this. I’m going to let you talk about it.

It’s possible. We have some people who are involved on the inside of The Land Academy right now. Jill and I had this conversation. They’re not partners in any way. I think as a result of the economy changing, COVID is over, the work-from-home fantasy is over, and that people are, in general, ready to show up for work and do some stuff. That’s good. These two people are shining, way more than any employee we’ve ever had work for The Land Academy. Now is the time. I found Jill as a business partner. We were social first, and then it worked out, but it’s just a numbers game.

It’s hard. Where do you start? I would say do what you’re doing, Elijah, in this group. We have a section in our Discord community online where it’s partnerships are wanted. It’s not just for deals. You could put in there, “I’m a data person. I need this.” That’s it. I’ve also had people do it in Career Path because Career Path seems to bring out the sharp, serious, bright people.

Career Path is the best place for this ever.

They have not gone into Career Path necessarily to find a partner, but to realize there’s a partner. Talking to this person, getting to know about their part of the business, and what they do, we would align so well. They just emerge out of Career Path as a partnership, so it is possible.

Career Path is a group of people that we teach who are serious about this. Sounds like you are serious about this. They’re long past convincing themselves that the model works. They’ve done a bunch of deals. They just want to do a lot more. There are parts of the business they don’t like. I’m describing myself. That’s exactly what happened. Jill picked up on the parts that I don’t like. Lucky for me, she naturally enjoys it. We were off to the races at that point. Yes, it’s possible. It’s going to take a lot of schmoozing, meeting new people, and getting out of your comfort level if you are a data person like me.

There you go.

Riding The Real Estate Wave: How Long Will The Buyer’s Market Last And What’s Next?

Our topic is, how long will it continue to be a land buyer’s market? We are in a hypersupply scenario right now, and the four stages of the landmark in the markets. It will be followed by a recession. The recessions, in my experience, unless it’s some weird Great Depression type thing, which I don’t think it will be, last about 24 to 36 months max. We’re already probably six months into it. Those things are predicated on whether the economy turns around in general. The answer is, I think, yes. Will interest rates go down? I think everybody agrees that that will happen. Will they go down to 3% mortgage rates again? Probably not. It will hover around 4% or maybe below.

Finally, and this is critical, when the three-in-one and five-in-one mortgages have all kicked in that were largely originated during COVID, so 2020, 2021, and 2022, that’s 3 to 5 years from 2022, which puts it around 2027, everybody will either have refi-ed by them, which is great for the business of real estate, they will have accepted it, or they will have been foreclosed on, which I don’t see that happening largely in this time around. 2027, maybe into 2028, that’s about when it’s probably going to end, but then it’s the heyday again. Who wants that?

I’ll go back up for just a moment. Can I ask some questions, please? I understand everything you just described. I’d like to put it in Jill’s terms, just to make sure I understood correctly. You’re thinking right now, because it’s a buyer’s market for us, you think I’m going to have another year to two to play with this and get cheap land?

I think 24 months from now, having an acquisition playground is very conservative and unlikely.

After that, because what’s going to happen is people are going to want to buy more land. Now, it’s going to turn into more competition for buying land, which is going to be an opportunity for me to sell a bunch of land. That’s the best part, right?

Send a lot of mail out this year, a ton more next year. Share on X

Yeah. Exactly.

What else? I’m thinking of you. I’m trying to pick your brain.

Send a lot of mail out this year. Send more mail out next year. If you’re thinking about joining The Land Academy, this is the time. We are doing a bunch of deals right now that we could never have done in 2023. This is not an advertisement. I’m just telling the cycles go around like this.

It’s crazy, the numbers. This is when home runs are made. This is when careers are like, “Look what just happened” kind of thing. You could buy these amazing properties, and maybe you sit on them for what we just talked about. Do it right. If you need to bring in a partner, because it’s that good, do it. There’s nothing wrong with that. That would be great, but you’re going to buy them crazy inexpensively. It’ll work out. I’m excited.

Join us next week for several more interesting episodes. You are not alone in your real estate ambition. We are Jack and Jill, information and inspiration to buy undervalued property.