NARs Self Serving False Recession Predictions (LA 1243)
NARs Self Serving False Recession Predictions (LA 1243)
Transcript:
Steven Butala:
Steve and Jill here.
Jill DeWit:
Hello.
Steven Butala:
Welcome to the Land Academy Show, entertaining land investment talk. I’m Steven Jack Butala.
Jill DeWit:
and I’m Jill DeWit, broadcasting from sunny southern California.
Steven Butala:
Today Jill and I talk about the National Association of Realtors, Self-serving, False Recessionary Predictions.
Jill DeWit:
Wow, that’s a long title. What the heck. Today we’re going to do a deep dive into the economic factors that have attributed to our current climate and then we will roll in-
Steven Butala:
Keep going, it’s kind of turning me on.
Jill DeWit:
We will roll in the unemployment ratio to the retail-
Steven Butala:
Oh, Jill.
Jill DeWit:
Climate and the political spin on what we’re facing in 2020. That’s what I heard.
Steven Butala:
It almost sounded like it made sense. You know what we won’t be talking about today? Politics. I’ll tell you that.
Jill DeWit:
This title’s like what the heck.
Steven Butala:
The National Association of Realtors has one of the largest, this is for decades and decades, one of the top five largest lobbyist groups in Washington-
Jill DeWit:
Which is why they get their way now, a lot.
Steven Butala:
… ever-
Jill DeWit:
and people listen.
Steven Butala:
And so why is that?
Jill DeWit:
Money.
Steven Butala:
It’s because they’re falsely propping up an industry that they know is just a has-been.
Jill DeWit:
For money.
Steven Butala:
And that will eventually get taken away. They’re in the business of collecting association dues. And it trickles up to them.
Jill DeWit:
And commissions.
Steven Butala:
So we spend a bunch of money perpetuating an antiquated way of buying and selling property, which Jill and I have been complaining about since we had started the show in 2015. And this episode is no exception. So if you’re a real estate agent, and you use a lot of hairspray and love yourself, now’s the time for you to turn this off.
Jill DeWit:
I would like to add, you know that reminds me of, which I really liked about, we used to live in Arizona. And the current governor of Arizona is Doug Doocy, and one of the things that I liked about back when we lived there, when he first took office, he stepped in and said, “What the heck are all these stupid licenses?” It’s like you have to have a separate license for this kind of a barber, and this kind of hairstylist. There were so many different licenses for everything. It’s almost like you had to have a license to be a dog groomer or if you do dogs over 50 pounds, if you do dogs under 50 pounds, you need this kind of a dog license. If you’re a street sweeper on the east side of the street, you need this license, if you’re a street sweeper on the left side of the street, you need this license. It was like that kind of nuttiness that, I like he came in and kind of said, “This is stupid. We need to pare this down.”
Jill DeWit:
So some of the stuff that goes on within this group or just some political groups, it’s just out of hand. And then we all know this, or maybe you don’t know this, every time there’s a new law that goes into place, the three other laws that this kind of supersedes don’t get taken off. They’re still there. So now that’s part of why it’s such a garbley mess. You have this new law that you’re looking at, but you’ve got to go back and go, wait a minute, how do the three laws leading up to this new law, do they still apply? What do we do with this? I would not make a good attorney. I probably would make a good attorney, because I know how to argue, but I don’t, but-
Steven Butala:
That’s for sure.
Jill DeWit:
But I don’t want to be an attorney, because it’s a flipping mess. So, sorry, that’s.
Steven Butala:
IF you ask a lawyer why this is, you bring this topic up, most of them, they’ll very seriously say, “Well, we’re saving the world.”
Jill DeWit:
“We’re doing a good thing.”
Steven Butala:
“We’re saving the-”
Jill DeWit:
“We’re looking out for everyone.”
Steven Butala:
“We’re altruistically…” Yeah, “because most people can’t make the rules for themselves. They really need us to make set rules and make re-rules and it’s an ongoing thing. It’s never finished. And I’m qualified to legislate how you do your real estate deals.” Which I couldn’t disagree with more.
Jill DeWit:
I know. We have to be careful. This is a slippery slope to go down, and I get mad.
Steven Butala:
It’s okay if you don’t use the P word.
Jill DeWit:
Okay. What’s the P word?
Steven Butala:
Politics.
Jill DeWit:
Oh no, I was just going into this long…
Steven Butala:
In a few minutes we’ll-
Jill DeWit:
Technical-
Steven Butala:
We’ll take it all out on the Association of Realtors. We’ll let it out for everybody.
Jill DeWit:
All right.
Steven Butala:
Before we get into it, let’s take a question posted by one of our members on the landinvestors.com online community. It’s free.
Jill DeWit:
Andy writes, “Hi, all. I sent in a couple of deeds to the County Clerk just now and I’m questioning whether I filled them out correctly. My question is here. In the part with the legal description, the seller’s deeds from the 80s says unit blank, lot, unit file.” I’ll just fill it in. “Block six, lot 23, in Sun City filled in the Maricopa County Clerk, May 1st, 1962.” I just made up that stuff, but that’s the gist of it. So he said, “This is from the seller’s deed, on the new deed I created…” Oh, he did make a mistake. “I copied the legal description exactly, but I changed the filed on date to match the one from the seller’s deed, which was July 5th, 1988 or so. My thought was that this was the legal description whereas what matters, and they filed on date is where the clerk can refer to the property easily. Was my thinking correct here? Or is there some reason I should have kept that 1962 date on there? Any help’s appreciated. Thanks.” Yeah, you don’t usually change of legal description at all.
Steven Butala:
Can you be real specific and give them, unlike most topics on the planet, this is a silver bullet topic, and there’s a right way and a wrong way to do it. And almost all of it’s really easy. You copy and paste the vesting deed when it comes to the legal description, and you submit it to the county.
Jill DeWit:
Exactly. Including the dates. So, because it’s referring to something way back when, and which is probably, that filed on date is not, because they’re usually not a date that goes with the deed. It’s a filed on date. Probably when they did the subdivision, right. And they came up with the units, and the blocks and all that. That’s when that was created. So it’s referring to that, not the day that that deed was recorded. So yeah, you know what Andy, you’re going to probably get that back.
Steven Butala:
Well, just to help everybody here, what’ll end up happening is that it’s not a big tragic thing. You’re going to have to do what’s called a corrective deed. And if you’re new in this business, don’t worry about this stuff. This is really kind of advanced stuff. And it doesn’t happen very often at all.
Jill DeWit:
Yeah, you’re okay.
Steven Butala:
Now the county is going to maybe catch it or maybe not, and-
Jill DeWit:
They might record it and then the assessor will catch it. That happens sometimes, too.
Steven Butala:
And they’ll call you and say, “Please issue a corrective deed.” So just redo it. The tragedy is that you’re going to have to get the seller to sign it again. And a lot of times they’re just not interested in talking. They got your money. They’re just done. But sometimes they’re super cool.
Jill DeWit:
Excuse me. Most of the time they’re just fine, because that’s how I do it. I’m not kidding. I’ve never-
Steven Butala:
Well they want to talk to Jill.
Jill DeWit:
I know, I’ve never [crosstalk 00:07:18] Let me go back. I don’t want to put any fear in anybody at all. I’ve never had an issue ever, not kidding, where I’ve had to say, you know what? I totally did a typo. I screwed up. I messed up something. Can I just resend your deed and you just go down to the bank next time it’s convenient for you, have them notarize and just pop in the mail back. I’m not going to do the whole notary thing, because it’s not that big of a deal. They’re like “Sure, no problem.” And that’s how it goes.
Steven Butala:
Everybody loves Jill.
Jill DeWit:
Thanks.
Steven Butala:
Today’s topic. The National Association of Realtors, Self-serving, False, Recessionary Predictions. This is the meat of the show. A couple of days ago, Jill and I were standing in the kitchen drinking coffee in the morning, and I brought this concept up to her. I said, “You know what? Remember when we were kids, there was a section in the newspaper called the opinion page,” and she’s like, “Oh yeah.” And then she said-
Jill DeWit:
The part I never read.
Steven Butala:
Yeah, people either read it, are interested or they don’t. And so I never thought of it that way, but I was never an opinion page reader either. There are some people just obsess about it, and it’s like a cult following for certain columnists. Back then for me it was Detroit. For you it’s probably Orange County. Anyway, my point is, is that every single news piece now is an opinion, regardless of the topic. And it’s just, we’ve gotten to a place as a country where, and it’s all because there’s so much competition for content, way more than. Detroit had two newspapers.
Jill DeWit:
It’s everywhere you look, it’s social media, it’s your Nextdoor app with your neighbors. Hey everybody, how did we get to this point, by the way? Used to be only the crazy ones. They were like you said, it was the same people. It was the crazy ones. And I never read the opinion page, because there were so far one way or the other. And it made me, it was frustrating, because what if I’m not that? Maybe I agree with 10% of it. I don’t have to be that far. I couldn’t stomach it.
Steven Butala:
And so the radio shows started back then in 60s and 70s are really on both ends of the spectrum radio shows. And now with the internet, unfortunately younger people, this is their only exposure, and they think it’s news. Or they think it’s information, more tragically. So it allows huge lobbyist groups like the National Association of Realtors to just hire people, tell them what to write about, or hire people that have the same opinion that they do, about whatever they’re trying to sell or prop up. And in their case, what they’re trying to sell, directly and indirectly, is getting more people to pay Association dues, which is licensed real estate agents, regardless if they do deals or not. So they perpetuate the fact that things are great. Just to complete their agenda, and it’s not a news article at all. And so right now and I laughed, because I read-
Jill DeWit:
Was it one in particular?
Steven Butala:
I know it’s a National Association of Realtors driven article. There was a senior economist, I don’t remember her name. She was about 12 years old, and she said the worst is over.
Jill DeWit:
Senior economist.
Steven Butala:
She’s Senior Economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Jill DeWit:
I bet she’s probably just out of college.
Steven Butala:
Yeah, she’s 20 years old. I don’t know, it doesn’t matter. But that title of the article is The Worst is Over, everything’s-
Jill DeWit:
Already?
Steven Butala:
Yeah.
Jill DeWit:
That’s what she said?
Steven Butala:
Yep.
Jill DeWit:
Oh that’s funny.
Steven Butala:
Then she backed it up with a bunch of data.
Jill DeWit:
That’s hilarious.
Steven Butala:
And it was all clicks. Because everybody’s sitting at home clicking through real estate stuff and so she’s like “Our clicks are up.” [crosstalk 00:11:02]
Jill DeWit:
How did her editor let this get out there?
Steven Butala:
Because that’s what they want, man.
Jill DeWit:
Because she’s 25 and her editor’s 30. Oh they just, is it the shock factor?
Steven Butala:
Yeah. They just want people to read the damn thing.
Jill DeWit:
Yeah that’s true.
Steven Butala:
And click through it.
Jill DeWit:
You know what, that’s it. That’s all it is. It’s going to get your attention, and you’re going to read it, and you’re going to go, “This is a bunch of baloney.”
Steven Butala:
So now more than ever, and if you’re a House Academy or a Land Academy member, I don’t need to tell you this at all. Close your ears. Now more than ever, please think for yourself. Please use some common sense. Don’t listen to what all this crap, this just noise everywhere. Not just about real estate, about everything. And Jill’s right, how extreme it gets on both sides. It’s really silly and unfortunate. Because it’s very, very difficult to get real information about real data. And I pride ourselves on really leaving all that noise out, and just looking at data, and buying and selling real estate where the data tells us to not these. We don’t write blogs about our opinions.
Jill DeWit:
Exactly.
Steven Butala:
Even thought that’s what this show is right now, sorry.
Jill DeWit:
Not only that, but it’s sharing our experience though. We use data and our experience. And we have proven it, we have posted it in the past. We put all of our transactions online. Took it down because it was 15 or 30 pages or something ridiculous, and people would go through it and ask questions, and it was just kind of a pain. But we put it out there, we have the experience and she doesn’t have the experience. I’d have a hard time trusting an article from someone like that. She might be the greatest analyst on the planet, but if you’re a great analyst plus you’ve lived through it and you can show me history and experience, then it’s even that much better.
Steven Butala:
Here’s the other thing too that, and this is really, really important regardless of how experienced or inexperienced you are. Real estate is very, very, very micro. What happens in one zip code doesn’t happen in another zip code. What happens in one census tract, once you do find an attractive zip code to buy and sell real estate in, land or houses, doesn’t necessarily happen in the census tract right next to that. Think about where you grew up when you were a kid, and what was going on three blocks away was probably completely different than what actually went on in your block.
Jill DeWit:
Excellent point.
Steven Butala:
So you can’t make a statistic about the national scenario of what’s happening based on the recession/virus with any degree of accuracy at all. And if you do, which is fine, I please do that, if you want. Just say what it is. What she should have said is this, “The national click through rate for single family houses is up 22% over last month, which indicates,” and then she should warn us, “this is my opinion as an economist, this indicates that this recession is not as bad as everybody thinks.” And then you can’t complain. Guy like me can’t complain about that. But when the title is, “It’s Over, Everything’s Fine.” And people are buying and selling houses the way they were before this. And it’s because there’s this pent-up demand, that’s just should go on the opinion page.
Jill DeWit:
I love it. That was good. Thank you sweetheart. And is that your opinion or is that a fact?
Steven Butala:
No, this whole episode is all opinions. But you know that.
Jill DeWit:
I know. Happy you could join us today. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday we’re right here on the Land Academy Show. Tuesdays and Thursdays we’re next door on the House Academy Show.
Steven Butala:
Next week, join us for another interesting addition to the Land Academy Show. You are not alone in your real estate ambition.
Jill DeWit:
So I was thinking as you were telling that story about every little micro market. I was thinking about when I was 18. I know you have a version of that too. Because where you grew up in Detroit, talk about different areas right?
Steven Butala:
Extreme.
Jill DeWit:
Right? Well even in where I grew up, we moved from Garden Grove to Laguna Hills, and I remember telling my friends, they’re like, “Oh, you moved to Laguna Hills.” All they knew was Nellie Gail. I’m like, “Well that’s the top of the Hill.” We lived at the bottom of the hill. So I let them all think that. Yeah, I didn’t live up there, we lived down here.
Steven Butala:
That’s hilarious.
Jill DeWit:
So that proves your point.
Steven Butala:
We live in a market now, right this minute, where if you go half a block away, the prices are half.
Jill DeWit:
Totally. It’s crazy.
Steven Butala:
Because of the ocean. And if you go a mile away, a mile in, it’s 10% of the price.
Jill DeWit:
It’s nuts. The Land Academy Show remains commercial free for you, our loyal listener. So wherever you’re watching, wherever you’re listening, please subscribe and rate us there. We are, Steve and Jill.
Steven Butala:
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Steven Butala:
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